Trends & Insights

Originally published by GlobeSt The single-tenant net lease market is likely to end the year strong, with sales activity on track to make 2022 the third strongest year in history.  That’s according to a recent analysis from Northmarq, which notes that if current activity levels carry over to Q4, the year will claim $74 billion in annual sales volume. In particular, the industrial market is set to report its second strongest year on record, while the office and retail sectors are more likely to have closer to average years.  Overall average STNL cap rates leveled out during the third quarter as sales activity declined for the third straight quarter. Private buyers have the largest share of the market, according to the report, and while the market is “significantly” off-pace to reach 2021 numbers, strong annual performance is still within reach.  “In the single-tenant net lease market, we’ve seen investment sales volume decline over the past three quarters and compared to the record-setting end to last year, current activity levels may feel somewhat lackluster,” said Lanie Beck at Northmarq. “Put in perspective though, the market is on pace to have a very solid year, perhaps topping the $70-billion-mark and solidifying 2022 as a top three year in history. However, fourth quarter will be telling. The final three months of the year will not only dictate how 2022 gets logged in the history books, but it will also set the tone for 2023.”  Investors are still flocking to the sector, with sales activity for net-leased retail rising between 24% to 27% across the 12-month span ending in June, according to Marcus & Millichap.  “Moving forward, investors seeking long-term cash flow may capitalize on high pricing in other sectors and move equity via 1031 exchanges into less management intensive single-tenant properties,” firm analysts note. “Yield-focused buyers may target Midwest markets with increased frequency, as Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Milwaukee and Minneapolis are home to average returns 30 basis points to 80 basis points above the national mean.”  © 2022 ALM Global Properties, LLC. All rights reserved.   

Originally published by Los Angeles Times It was hailed as a landmark decision for the environment: The California Air Resources Board voted in August to require that all new automobiles and light trucks sold in the state be zero emission by 2035.  The move, aimed at tackling climate change, has been cheered by many. Just not mom-and-pop gas station owners.  In interviews with The Times, independent gas station owners said the state mandate will expedite the demise of their businesses. And they make up a significant part of the state’s fueling infrastructure: A little more than 5,000 such stations are scattered across California, according to National Assn. of Convenience Stores data.  “Most of the independents will be put out of business — completely out of business,” said Charles Khalil, who owns two gas stations in the L.A. area and is bracing for a shakeout ahead of 2035. “We are all going to suffer through it.”  He and other owners predict many mom-and-pop operators will, in the years ahead, sell their properties to real estate developers or large gas station chains that can afford to upgrade the sites with electric vehicle chargers. Space limitations and the high cost of installing chargers — a high-capacity version can cost $150,000, including all associated expenditures — make it infeasible for some owners to update their properties for an electric future.  Another local independent gas station owner, Adnan Ayoub, said the zero-emission mandate “is not going to be fun for a lot of us.”  “When the gas [cars] go away, I don’t know how many customers I would lose,” said Ayoub, who operates a station in Glendale and has been in the business for 33 years. “I’m kind of on the way out, looking for something else to do.”  Electric vehicle industry consultant Loren McDonald said the move by the resources board, a powerful department within the California Environmental Protection Agency, may not have much obvious immediate effect. But a significant number of closures will eventually come.  “It will be steady for a few years,” said McDonald, who consults for EV charging companies and convenience store chains, among others. “But ... in the last five years, as we start to approach the 2035 deadline, these owners are going to start bailing.”  How many mom-and-pop gas stations might California lose in the years ahead?  Using five years of annual data from the National Assn. of Convenience Stores, McDonald estimated that nearly half of the state’s 5,081 mom-and-pop gas stations would close by 2035. NACS defines these stations as those that include a convenience shop and are owned by a single-store proprietor — hence the “mom-and-pop” designation. (A caveat about the estimate: McDonald’s model assumes stations will begin closing at a rate of 3% annually, increasing to 6% a year — but over the next 13 years the loss of stations is unlikely to be linear.)  Under the CARB mandate, there will be a tapering of sales of gas-powered cars over the next 13 years: 35% of new autos must be zero emission by 2026, 68% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. (The mandate allows 20% of what the state calls “zero-emission” vehicles to be plug-in hybrids, which can either run on electric batteries or on fossil fuels.)  But owners of vehicles with internal combustion engines will still be permitted to operate or resell them after 2035. With the average lifespan of a car in the U.S. pegged at about 12 years, there will be a need for gasoline for decades to come. Still, that demand will decline dramatically. CARB predicts that the 24 million California-registered cars and light trucks powered by fossil fuels will drop to a bit under 16 million by 2035.  McDonald expects gas stations owners to be affected not only by the new state rule, but also by the proliferation of increasingly efficient gas-powered and hybrid vehicles that achieve ever-loftier miles-per-gallon ratings. Simply put, some consumers will need to fill up for gas less frequently, and others not at all.  Girding for turmoil, gas station owners gloomily point out unresolved issues related to the new CARB rule. For example, how would California generate the electricity needed for the millions of new EVs that would be sold here? (According to the resources board, there are already 1.13 million zero-emission vehicles registered in the state.) And yet even as they raised this and other questions, owners said that they supported changes to help the environment.  Not every gas station operator intends to get out of the business. Take Bob Reed, 80, of San Mateo, Calif. He’s run the same station and service center on Palm Avenue in the San Francisco Bay Area city since 1973. “In my life, I will never sell it, because it took me a while to get this,” he said.  Reed knows a sea change is coming to the industry, but it’s one that his descendants will have to tackle, he said, lamenting: “My son and grandson will be the ones who are going to feel it.”  The real estate play  There’s a saving grace for gas station owners who are anxious over their prospects: location, location, location.  Because stations are typically in high-traffic areas, many are situated on parcels that would be coveted by real estate developers should owners decide to sell. Ronnie Givargis, investment sales broker at commercial real estate services firm Northmarq, said that there is strong demand for these sites, a large swath of which are “located on irreplaceable corners.”  “If your site is located in a desirable area, repurposing the property will be simple and profitable,” he added, noting that such parcels could be ideal for drive-through restaurants, banks and high-volume retailers.  Khalil’s stations are on Santa Monica Boulevard in Westwood and on Beverly Boulevard across from the Beverly Center, the latter a spot known for high gasoline prices. And the 52-year veteran of the business is leaning toward eventually selling to a developer.  “The reason we are holding tight to those locations is just because of the real estate,” said Khalil, who also runs a Torrance-based convenience store marketing consulting firm. “Gas stations are on the best corners, no matter what town, what area. Those people are holding on a bit so they could sell it to developer. That’s what I would do.”  Ayoub said that he also sees the development potential of the site that currently houses his station — but can’t make a move until his contract with a gasoline distributor expires in 2025.  “My options are either to sell to someone else and let them worry about it, or wait until my current contract expires ... and develop the property into something else,” he said.  Not all operators own the parcels their gas stations are situated on, and those proprietors who lease their properties could find themselves in an even more tenuous position than their land-owning peers who may reap a windfall in a sale.  Givargis said he’s noted “individual owners wanting to sell their stations now more than in the past,” and partly attributed this increase to the 2035 mandate. There are, however, environmental contamination issues that can crop up when a former gas station site is repurposed.  “There may be a need to go through a remediation process to clean up the site and make it habitable for future businesses,” Givargis said.  Such parcels might be coveted by real state developers or large gas station chains that would outfit the properties with EV chargers. One local chain is Long Beach-based United Pacific, which owns more than 500 convenience store gas stations and also distributes fuel.  “The larger groups can scale more efficiently and therefore turn better profits than a one-off operator can,” Givargis said.  An electric future  Many of the mom-and-pop gas stations will have a role to play in the EV-only environment — they may just have new owners.  It is not as if some independent owners haven’t tried to keep up with the times. Ayoub said that he had considered adding electric vehicle chargers at his station, but that a quote for the work was not economical.  Indeed, for a mom-and-pop owner, McDonald said the installation of a fast DC charger typically costs about $150,000 including construction and infrastructure work, whereas a large chain could add chargers at a lower per-unit cost due to economies of scale.  Carl Pancutt, chief executive of San Pedro-based Cleantek, an EV charging engineering and construction firm, said that adding a high-powered DC charger can cost from $70,000 to $100,000 for the equipment, and an additional $30,000 to $100,000 for the construction, depending on existing infrastructure. Pancutt, who also heads EV Range, a company that owns and operates an EV charging network, said it could cost more than $500,000 to add four DC dispensers to a site.  There are limited local, state and federal subsidies that gas station owners may tap to defray the cost of adding chargers, but accessing the incentives can require navigating a byzantine bureaucracy — an endeavor that some hire consultants to manage. More aid will soon flow from the federal government — a result of the $1-trillion infrastructure bill signed by President Biden in November.  Despite the high costs, EV Range has worked with some independent gas station owners to add chargers, including one in Walker, Calif. Helping independent gas station owners “provide an amenity to the new wave of drivers is important,” Pancutt said. “And it’s important to them for the next phase of their business.”  Still, once installed, it may take two to five years for EV chargers to become profitable, McDonald said. That’s due in part to their infrequent use. McDonald said that gas station EV chargers are typically used just 5% to 10% of a 24-hour period.  Then there’s the issue of “throughput,” an industry term for the number of customers that can be served at a single dispenser. A gas pump has a much higher throughput than an EV charger, because a gas-powered vehicle can be filled up in 10 minutes or less, whereas it could take more than 40 minutes to charge an electric vehicle to near its capacity using a DC fast charger.  But a potential benefit of a long wait for an EV fill-up is that customers would spend more time at a gas station property. While there, patrons might be inclined to fork over more money in the convenience store, perhaps enticed by fresher coffee and tastier pastries than are typically offered today.  However, to accommodate such visits, owners might need to upgrade their facilities — yet another expense.  “Smaller, local ones — if they see their business is going to be dying in 10 years — they are probably not going to spend the capital to add seating for 10 people inside and outside,” McDonald said.  Besides the matter of cost, there’s another potential issue — one Khalil ran into when he looked into adding chargers to his station near the Beverly Center: a lack of space.  A few years ago, he grew curious about the possibility of converting some of his gas pumps at the roughly 14,000-square-foot station on Beverly. “I said, ‘I will be ahead of the game,’” he said.  But an EV consult who visited the station had bad news. “They tell me, ‘You don’t have enough space to convert your property,’” Khalil recalled.  Pancutt confirmed that EV chargers require significant real estate. For starters, there’s the additional electrical infrastructure, which alone can occupy a piece of land up to three parking spaces in size, he said. Also, the first charger installed must comply with Americans With Disabilities Act standards, necessitating a 12-foot-wide parking stall with a 5-foot-wide aisle. From there, additional stalls would be 9 or 10 feet wide.  “That’s another hurdle,” Pancutt said.  Despite their pique, some gas station owners acknowledged that environmental realities require action.  “If experts say the environment requires we do it, then we move on,” Khalil said. “In the meantime, I am a little bit melancholic about it.”  But Khalil — who has spent more than half a century in the gas station business — is already prepared for the electric future, at least personally.  He drives a Tesla Model X. 

Rob Gemerchak, investment sales broker in Northmarq’s Toledo, Ohio office, completed the sale of a single-tenant industrial building leased to Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., an American firearm manufacturing company based in Southport, Connecticut. The 224,888-square-foot distribution center is located at 700 South Ayersville Road in Mayodan, North Carolina. Gemerchak represented the seller, an investment partnership based in North Carolina. A Hiddendite, North Carolina-based investor acquired the asset for $8.3 million.  “The Mayodan asset received a great deal of national interest and multiple proposals from investors due to the financial strength of the tenant, the quality of the property and the continued growth of the Greensboro and Winston-Salem industrial markets,” said Gemerchak. “Despite the recent disruption in the debt markets, we continue to actively transact and successfully close sales, as the industrial net lease product remains in high demand as a favored asset class among investors.”  The recently upgraded distribution center sits on 16.09 acres and features ceiling heights up to 25 feet, eight dock doors, full fire suppression, heavy power capacity and a modern 8,200-square-foot front office. Located in a thriving industrial market, the property is less than two miles away from the company’s manufacturing plant. Sturm, Ruger & Company has operated this facility for nine years and plans to increase the factory capacity, adding 60 new employees at a cost of $10 million. 

Originally published by GlobeSt Now’s not the best time to be a prospective tenant in an industrial outdoor storage (IOS) facility, according to a new report from Marcus & Millichap.  A combination of strict zoning requirements, unfavorable building-to-land coverage ratios, and municipal development restrictions has confined many developers to traditional industrial properties, suppressing additional supply.  Therefore, existing IOS facilities “have become increasingly coveted by industrial users,” the firm said.  IOS vacancy fell under 3 percent in mid-2022, below the historical average, while IOS rents have advanced by nearly 30 percent on average since the end of 2019. General industrial rents rose 24 percent during the same span.  IOS Investors Seek Shorter Lease Terms  Mark Grossman, investment sales broker and IOS specialist at Northmarq, following the acquisition of Stan Johnson Company, tells GlobeSt.com that industrial outdoor storage has grown from a small niche asset class in the industrial market to a top industrial product type, now with its own subsets and niches.  “We continue to see private and institutional capital specifically target IOS assets, and new investors are entering the market quickly.  “A noticeable trend in recent years is that investors are getting smarter about how to analyze this market and are investing creatively.  “Perhaps counterintuitive to the net lease sector – where the longer the lease used to mean greater value – we are seeing IOS investors seek shorter lease terms as a value-add play.  “There are so many advantages to IOS that make it attractive, but there are barriers to entry as well. This continues to be a fragmented market, there’s low vacancy, very limited supply, low expenses, and significant value-add opportunities. These characteristics are drawing sophisticated and smart money to this space.”  Same-Day Delivery Should Grow 25% Through This Year  Marcus & Millichap said that the global same-day delivery services market is expected to grow by 25 percent through 2022, creating additional demand for last-mile storage.  “Rising fuel costs have also caused firms to place further emphasis on consolidating operations, making the infill nature of IOS particularly attractive. In either case, IOS will play a major role in supporting firms’ operations, efficiently linking the wider supply chain to individual municipalities,” according to the report.  © 2022 ALM Global Properties, LLC. All rights reserved.   

Originally published by Wealth Management With many retailers closing locations during the pandemic, e-commerce sellers took the opportunity to reposition dark stores in urban locations as mini warehouses. But now that the U.S. retail sector seemed to have gained a position of relative strength and many people have eagerly come back to in-person shopping, will that strategy continue to be a sound one?  According to Benjamin Conwell, senior managing director and practice leader for the e-commerce and electronic fulfillment specialty practice group in the Americas for real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield, demand for “dark stores” in urban neighborhoods is not a temporary fad, but a trend that isn’t going away. That’s because e-commerce and omni-channel operators see them as a cost-effective way to get close enough to their customers to provide 30-miniute to 60-minute delivery, he notes.  High fuel prices and extraordinary growth in industrial rents are helping maintain this demand, since transportation costs now make up a larger-than-ever portion of logistics companies’ spend, notes Brandon Isner, head of retail research for the Americas with real estate services firm CBRE. He estimates that transportation-related expenses now make up between 45 to 70 percent of their total costs. Conversely, fixed facility costs, which include real estate, make up just 3 to 6 percent of the overall figure.  In addition, industrial rent growth over the past few years has far outpaced the growth in retail rents, so it makes sense for e-commerce and multi-channel operators to have a large network of dark store distribution sites, even if they offer just curbside pickup, Isner notes. Over the past year, industrial rent growth across the country has averaged 12.5 percent, according to real estate services firm Savills, and that has been considered a slowdown. During the same time period, retail rent growth has reached only 2.5 percent, according to Isner, and that was the highest level recorded since the first quarter of 2017.  Meanwhile, there are also advantages for using retail locations in urban locations as distribution space that go beyond efficiency of operations, Isner notes. For example, such locations leave an opportunity for retailers to maintain an interpersonal relationship with their customers, rather than relying exclusively on third-party representatives. “And the beauty of using a retail [location] for this type of use is that they are already well-positioned to handle high levels of traffic,” he says.  Who’s occupying dark stores?  Tenants utilizing dark-store space as distribution facilities are commonly retailers that either already have a large e-commerce platform of their own or have partnered with a third-party e-commerce operator, according to Jacob Ryan, an investment sales broker with real estate services firm Northmarq. The pandemic accelerated the demand for direct-to-consumer delivery at a record pace, requiring retailers to quickly find ways to cut costs and get products into customers’ hands as quickly as possible.  “The most logical place to turn was to start leveraging assets already under their control and converting under-utilized retail space to distribution and logistical support square-footage,” Ryan notes.  Many of such tenants are grocers, including Whole Foods and regional grocery chains, according to Conwell, though he adds that apparel and soft goods retailers were early adopters of the dark store concept.  Rapid delivery start-ups, including Gorillas, Jokr, Fridge No More and Gopuff, which promise doorstep delivery of everything from eggs to pizza in as little as 10 minutes, also occupy dark stores. But such concepts initially accumulated a lot of investment capital, some, including Gopuff, opened hundreds of locations nationally and expanded faster than the demand for their services and existing infrastructure justified, notes Conwell. Now, some of them are pulling back.  During the depth of the pandemic, this alternative use helped boost retail occupancy, which endured a myriad of challenges in recent years, from low consumer sentiment to e-commerce competition to supply chain disruptions. That lull in retail activity, however, has ended quickly, according to Isner.  “In-person retail is back,” agrees Ryan. “Consumers emerged from the pandemic in a big way, and discretionary spending data supports that. The in-store experience provides us the touch and feel that we all desire.”  In the third quarter, national retail vacancy averaged 5.0 percent, one of the lowest levels on record, according to CBRE research. And in the first half of 2022, U.S. store openings outpaced store closings by 2,517, notes Isner.  Under these conditions, and taking into account the growth in retail rents, using the dark store distribution strategy is becoming more challenging, he says. But an even bigger challenge is overcoming community opposition to the use of dark stores as distribution facilities, with the corner grocery store becoming a mystery space with paper taped over the windows.  “These don’t go over well with city councils as they don’t make for vibrant streetscapes, notes Conwell. So, while he expects demand for these types of spaces to continue to be strong, “it doesn’t come without hair.”  In New York City, for example, community complaints about dark stores used as rapid delivery sites have caused the city to implement new regulations making it illegal to paper over retail windows and requiring the tenants to open functioning storefronts, according to an Insider report. In order to comply, some of the tenants set up indoor kiosks for online shoppers to pick up their items in-person.  With the strong return of in-person shopping, these tensions may go away by themselves, in Ryan’s view. He notes that he doesn’t expect a big uptick in new leases executed for the specific purpose of using dark stores as distribution facilities. Rather, during lease renegotiations, tenants may ask to use some of their existing in-store space to be converted and utilized for e-commerce needs. 

Prior to the Northmarq acquisition of Stan Johnson Company, investment sales brokers Zach Harris and Jeff Hughes completed the sale of a nine-location portfolio occupied by Empire Roofing Group, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tecta America Corporation. The facilities are located across five states, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and Oklahoma, and total 348,824 square feet. Harris and Hughes with Stan Johnson Company (now Northmarq) partnered with Seth Koschak and Jeff Rein of Stream Realty Partners to represent the seller, Empire Holdings - a Fort Worth, Texas-based national real estate services, development and investment company. The Arden Group, a leading U.S. middle-market real estate fund manager based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, acquired the portfolio.  “This portfolio transaction presented an attractive opportunity to acquire well-located low coverage industrial properties across some of the top markets in Texas and the Southeastern U.S., all leased to the same reputable company,” said Harris. “Empire Roofing is one of the top commercial roofing contractors in the country and, now owned by Tecta America Corp, they are primed for continued growth and success. Through our direct competitive marketing process, we selected Arden Group and were excited to work with them on this significant acquisition for their new and growing Industrial Service Facilities (ISF) portfolio.”  The portfolio includes nine freestanding industrial buildings ranging from 16,000 square feet to 150,000 square feet, including a newly built Houston industrial building. Approximately two-thirds of the portfolio’s buildings were built between 1999 and now. The properties are strategically located in major industrial markets with low building coverage as well as outside storage or excess land with opportunities for expansion.  “After an extensive evaluation of the nation’s top brokerage teams to assist with this sales process, we selected Stream Realty and Stan Johnson Company (now Northmarq) as our trusted partners,” said Bowie Holland, president of Empire Holdings. “We were particularly impressed with their substantial due diligence on our portfolio and the innovative marketing strategies they brought to the table. We look forward to many more collaborations in the future.”  “This portfolio acquisition is part of our investment focus on ISF, including industrial outdoor storage sites, truck terminals, trailer parking and last-mile port facilities in core U.S. markets,” said Christian Vergilio, Director of Acquisitions for Arden Logistics Parks.  Arden recently formed a $1 billion Joint Venture specifically focused on acquiring ISFs, or low site coverage industrial assets, situated in dense, infill locations. “The Empire Portfolio is emblematic of the types of partnerships we are looking to form with users in the ISF space and we look forward to continuing the relationship with the team,” Vergilio noted.  About Empire Holdings Empire Holdings is a commercial real estate developer that specializes in single-tenant, build-to-suit industrial properties with design, technology, and innovation at the forefront. Backed by a powerhouse team led by 40-year commercial real estate industry vet Sandra McGlothin, Empire Holdings is changing the way commercial industrial spaces are built. Together, the team has already led Empire Holdings to acquire and develop more than 100 properties spanning 1.1 million square feet across five states, with a primary focus on Texas. To learn more about Empire Holdings, please visit: www.empireholdingstx.com

Northmarq’s Ohio-based Rob Gemerchak (formerly of Stan Johnson Company), has completed the sale leaseback of three freestanding industrial buildings in Ashley, Indiana and Flat Rock, Michigan. Together, they total 35,000 sq. ft. Gemerchak represented the seller, Royal Arc Welding, a leading industrial and manufacturing company that executed a new, long-term triple net lease at the time of sale. The portfolio was acquired for $4.2 million by a California-based developer.  “This long-term sale leaseback opportunity was an excellent fit for private equity, family offices and 1031 investors who were attracted to the company’s story, market position and the well-maintained properties strategically located in the active and healthy Midwest region,” said Gemerchak. “It was truly a win-win transaction, as the seller achieved a competitive sale price for their real estate which they plan to reinvest in their growing business. Additionally, the buyer received a long-term passive investment with a great tenant and sound real estate fundamentals.”  Founded in 1983, Royal Arc Welding provides a diverse range of industrial services including the design, installation, inspection and repair of overhead crane systems. Each of the properties include office space, craned warehouse and assembly operations and serve major long-term clients within the Detroit, Michigan and Fort Wayne, Indiana market areas. 

Asher Wenig, investment sales broker in Northmarq’s New York investment sales office, completed the $7.1 million sale of The Cheesecake Factory. The 12,575 sq. ft. freestanding restaurant is located within the SouthSide Works development, at 415 South 27th Street, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Northmarq represented both the New York-based buyer and New York-based seller in the sale.  “Currently experiencing a major rejuvenation, the SouthSide Works is an absolutely terrific mixed-use oasis in the city of Pittsburgh. With the rejuvenation in the area, the new owner of this strong-performing Cheesecake Factory will benefit from major growth in the area given the healthy term, rent and percentage rent outlined in the lease,” said Wenig. “This was far from a cookie cutter deal and took a very sophisticated buyer to understand the ins and outs of the lease and opportunity. It was a very fun marketing campaign where both sides came away winners.”  The Cheesecake Factory has operated at the property since it was built in 2004 and recently extended their lease. The 0.38-acre site benefits from outstanding demographics with nearly 395,000 residents in the immediate five-mile radius and close proximity to two major universities: The University of Pittsburgh (1.9 miles) and Carnegie Mellon University (3.1 miles). Located in the SouthSide Works development, the property boasts walkability, visibility, and plenty of parking.   Adjacent national retailers include REI, ALDI, Urban Outfitters, LA Fitness, and many more. Additionally, the Town Center Square alongside the property will soon be upgraded to include bosque seating, gathering stairs, lawn games and a flex use stage for movies and musical performances, drawing even more visitors to SouthSide Works.