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Michael Zimmerman joins Northmarq's investment sales team
Michael Zimmerman joins Northmarq as Vice President in Net Lease Investment Sales
Northmarq’s investment sales team has announced the addition of Michael Zimmerman as Vice President – Commercial Investment Sales. Zimmerman specializes in the disposition and acquisition of single tenant and triple net lease retail properties, further expanding Northmarq’s commercial investment sales. With over 20 years in the commercial real estate business, Zimmerman has been involved in over $1 billion of sales for shopping centers, single tenant, strip centers, office buildings and land deals. Prior to Northmarq, Zimmerman served as principal owner at Ground & Space. He has also served as a partner at Atlantic Retail Properties and a managing director at Calkain Companies. “I am thrilled to join Daniel Herrold’s team and Northmarq’s rapidly growing investment sales platform,” said Zimmerman. “Providing best in class data and the ability to leverage our debt and equity services are just some of the ways we can bring more value to our clients.” In his new role, Zimmerman joins the commercial investment sales team led by Daniel Herrold, Senior Vice President of Northmarq’s Tulsa office. Zimmerman will be based in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and brings his expertise to support merchant builders, private owners and institutional clients with their retail investment needs. “I’m excited to have Michael join our team,” said Herrold. “Michael is a veteran in the net lease space having over 20 years of experience in the business. We needed to fill a void in our team of focusing on retail investors and developers throughout the Southeast, and Michael fits that void perfectly with his existing clients and business activity.” Zimmerman is a graduate of San Diego State University and holds a broker’s license in North Carolina and Florida. He is also a long-time member of the International Council of Shopping Centers.
May 10, 2023
Philbin-Butler-April23
Mike Philbin and Ryan Butler Share Insights with GlobeSt: Net Lease Cap Rates at Highest Levels in Nearly Three Years
Originally published by GlobeSt Cap rates in Q1 2023 represented the highest levels since Q3 2020 for both the single-tenant retail and office sectors, according to a new report from The Boulder Group. Decreasing transaction volume for the greater real estate market continues to limit 1031 exchange buyers transitioning into net lease properties, it said, as cap rates in the single tenant net lease sector increased for the fourth consecutive quarter within all three sectors in Q1 2023. New construction properties with recession-proof tenants including 7-Eleven and McDonald’s represent some of the lowest cap rates in the sector. “However, these tenants are not immune to upward cap rate pressure,” according to the report. “In Q1 2023, cap rates for new construction 7-Eleven and McDonald’s properties increased by 35 and 15 basis points, respectively. Furthermore, the spread between asking and closed cap rate increased for all three asset classes.” The spread rose to 30 basis points for retail, 40 for office, and 27 for industrial, according to the report. “Investors will continue to follow the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy,” The Boulder Group writes. “Investors largely believe there will be an end to the larger rate increases, of 50 basis points or more, in the near term.” Transactions will be driven by low leverage or all cash 1031 buyers for the highest quality product, The Boulder Group said. “However, given the overall uncertainty in the broader real estate market, the depth of the 1031 buyer pool will be limited when compared to historical standards.” Lower-Credit Assets ‘Back Where They Should Be’ Mike Philbin, Northmarq senior vice president, tells GlobeSt.com that “we are closely approaching the one-year mark of when we started to see the peak of the net lease investment market fizzle away. “Due to the repeated interest rates hikes, this was inevitable. However, not all net assets had as drastic of CAP rate shifts. The higher-credit, investment-grade tenants have had a maximum of 50 bps upward movement in this time. “The lower credit, smaller franchisee, in tertiary market tenants have seen closer to 150-200 bps. We did have a very frothy net lease investment market moving into Spring 2022. But relatively speaking, the lower credit assets are back where they should be and the investment grade net lease assets are back to the 2018-2019 range, which was a strong market.” Price Maximization Especially Difficult for Larger Transactions Alex Sharrin, senior managing director, JLL, tells GlobeSt.com that investment momentum persists for performing retail that can be acquired with positive leverage. “The net lease market sits at the crux of real estate and credit, but intrinsic fundamentals are trumping credit amidst volatility,” he said. “Private capital continues to lead the bidder pool for NNN assets across the country and is often winning deals due to the unleveraged nature of the capital/underwriting. “Capitulation has been faster than expected for liquidity and re-investment.” Sharrin said price maximization has been especially difficult for larger transactions (i.e. $75MM+). “Instead of making comparisons to early 2022, a more realistic pricing benchmark is 2018/2019 levels or, pre-pandemic and pre-stimulus,” he said. Transaction Volume Will Soon ‘Level Off’ Ryan Butler, managing director and senior vice president, Northmarq, tells GlobeSt.com that investors across all commercial real estate asset classes have been paying close attention to the responsive actions of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury as they work to address the ongoing regional banking crisis and continue the fight to tame record-high inflation. “As a result of the swift actions taken by both bodies, we are starting to experience a broad expansion in capitalization rates across the Net Lease sector,” Butler said. “However, it is important to note that this cap rate expansion cannot be painted with a broad-brush stroke. Investors in our space are still seeking well-positioned industrial and retail assets leased to ‘recession-proof’ tenants and, as a result, still transacting. “We anticipate a leveling off in the downward trend in transaction volume through the end of the year as investors make sense of this changing market. Realizing that the net lease asset class will continue to be a safe and stable investment vehicle within the real estate sector.” Bid-Ask Gap Widening Eli Randel, COO, CREXi, tells GlobeSt.com that cap rates on closed net lease assets have risen almost 5% YoY with transaction velocity slowing as buyer demand has cooled because of macro-market conditions. “The segment a year ago was at parity between asking and closed prices whereas now sales are transacting below asking prices illustrating a widening of the bid-ask gap,” Randel said. With increases in interest rates, both costs of capital have increased, and similar alternative vehicles are now generating attractive yields (for instance a liquid “risk-free” savings account at Marcus has a 3.75% interest rate), Randel pointed out. “Yet, net-lease real estate still has many benefits to passive investors and remains historically active and strong. Net lease continues to attract 1031 buyers and real estate investors looking for good yields with future upside and often buying in cash. “While slightly less active, higher-yielding, and with more discriminatory underwriting of terms (largely term-length and credit), net lease remains an important category and a great investment product for many in today’s environment.” Stale Assets on the Market, Decreasing Inventories Geoffrey West, senior vice president, MDL Group/CORFAC International, tells GlobeSt.com that amid the historic pace of interest rate increases experienced over the past year, single tenant net lease sellers have been reticent to quickly meet the increased cap rate market expectations resulting in decreased transaction volumes, stale assets on market, and decreasing inventories of available product. West said specifically in the California, Arizona, and Nevada markets, multiple surveys of available fast-food STNL assets (excluding ground leases) conducted over the past year in conjunction with maintaining market positioning of existing listings indicate an overall increase in average asking cap rates from April 2022 to April 2023 from 4.1% to 4.7% and a significant decrease in the quantity and quality composition of the available assets. And within that survey, secondary and tertiary market locations in those states appear to be adjusting to a higher cap rate environment more quickly while primary and core market locations lag as they seek to maintain historical premium cap rate levels. “The recent restabilization of the US 10-year treasury rates around the 350bps level appear to have put reduced upward pressure on asking cap rates as surveys conducted in February 2023 and April 2023 only reflected a 10bps increase in asking cap rate,” West said. “While prospective buyers with 1031 Exchange motivations cannot acquire treasury note assets and those don’t enjoy the benefits and burdens of real estate ownership, the yields being offered in those financial instruments, especially short-term yields, are often superior to core location yields being sought by sellers.” West added that, as such, investors without 1031 Exchange motivations and flexibility may look to temporarily park monies in these alternative investments and benefit from the premium yields being offered by the inverted yield curve until Seller expectations and the current bid-ask spread tighten and transaction activity levels rebound. © 2022 ALM Global Properties, LLC. All rights reserved.
April 4, 2023
Top 100 Tenant Expansion Trends
Top 100 Tenant Expansion Trends: Q1 2023
Summary of future growth plans for the top 100 retailers, as selected by brand recognition, expansion rate and frequency of investment sale transactions Average cap rate and sale price information for the most commonly traded retailers Credit rating summary with parent company information Average square footage ranges and store counts for each tenant
March 30, 2023
Spector-April23
Milo Spector Authors Perspective in GlobeSt: Early Education Assets in High Demand by Net Lease Investors
Originally published by GlobeSt While early education centers may have been overlooked by many high-net worth investors in the past, the pandemic has reinforced just how essential these centers are as they are meeting or even exceeding pre-COVID enrollment. Throughout the pandemic, many centers stayed open for the children of front-line workers. Additionally, early education facilities have proven vital for children to have face-to-face interaction to develop social skills. And ultimately, parents need childcare, making the sector necessary. While the early education space has not been as well-known as some other single-tenant net lease sectors, it has taken off over the last couple of years and has become much more recognized as a secure investment. What Has Changed? Historically, early education assets traded for higher cap rates on average than other single-tenant net lease retail properties like dollar stores, banks, and quick-service restaurants. In addition, most of the investors were institutional groups like publicly traded REITS. In general, high-net worth buyers typically had a harder time understanding the early education business model or didn’t recognize the company vs something like a quick-service restaurant or a pharmacy. Most high-net worth investors are one-time buyers who are in a tax-deferred exchanges and being such tend to stick with businesses they know. It is much easier to feel comfortable with a McDonald’s vs. a KinderCare if you don’t know who KinderCare is, despite KinderCare being one of the largest corporate operators in the early education space with over 1,500 locations. This concept is demonstrated by the spread between single-tenant retail cap rates vs. single-tenant early education cap rates. On average, there was an approximately 120 basis point spread between early education and single-tenant retail. However, that spread drastically dropped to about 87 basis points in 2022 – an all-time, record low. That is clear evidence that many more high-net worth investors are aggressively pursuing the early education space. This robust high-net worth investor demand has been driving down cap rates and making this spread thinner. Early education cap rates were historically low in 2022, at an average of 6.44 percent, which is 71 basis points lower than the previous year average of 7.15 percent (this data includes all credits, lease terms, and locations).   © 2022 ALM Global Properties, LLC. All rights reserved. Surging Demand In 2021 and 2022, more high-net worth investors began looking at all types of properties to fulfill their 1031 exchanges including early education, due to a lack of inventory, and some of the most aggressive cap rates ever experienced in the single-tenant net-leased sector. Over the last two years, we started seeing unprecedented demand for early education assets. We saw cap rates drop below 6 percent, which was previously unheard of in this space, and Spector set multiple cap rate records at this sub-6 percent level. Typically, these deals were in strong locations with long lease terms and strong credit. For example, Spector sold a portfolio of two early education centers for $14 million at a 5.75 cap and had multiple offers. Spector also sold a multi-building property for $10.8 million, also at a 5.75 cap, which also drew multiple bids and closed all cash. Sales Volume Up Transaction volume for the early education sector in 2022 exceeded $681 million, up approximately $54 million over 2021. Both 2021 and 2022 nearly doubled the sales volumes of previous years, again a strong indicator that more buyers are attracted to the space. In 2022, there was a significant amount of investment from the “private client” or “high-net worth” sector, with approximately 89 percent of early education properties sold to this investor type. New listings are also on the rise. The increase in listings can be attributed to growing demand from investors, prompting more landlords to consider a sale, as well as more developers and operators looking to capitalize on the benefits of fully marketing a property. Outlook for 2023 This year unwavering investor demand will continue for early education properties. Buyers remain attracted to the sector’s e-commerce-resistant nature, high-quality real estate, long lease terms, and escalating demand. While the net-leased market has decelerated overall, it is by no means “dead.” While the market was in somewhat of a frenzy over the last couple of years, Spector anticipates strong sales volume again this year. Early education properties will continue to trade hands, as more 1031 buyers consider it a secure option with strong tenants. Like every other product type, however, today’s cap rates for early education assets are a bit of a moving target due to the rapidly changing economic environment and rising interest rates. While we may not be seeing as many deals trade in the sub-6 percent range that was seen in 2022, they remain extremely low relative to where the market was historically. © 2022 ALM Global Properties, LLC. All rights reserved.
March 30, 2023
Viewpoint Report
Capital Markets Overview: A Look at the Current Environment and Opportunities Going Forward
Coming off the heels of the commercial real estate conference season, the industry seems to have arrived at a consensus: opportunities are available for those willing to search for them and that search may be getting a little bit easier. The expectation is for more clarity from the Fed as the spring progresses, and accordingly, we anticipate that from summer until the end of the year, we will see strong transaction volume.  Retail lending becoming attractive  One of the key takeaways from recent conversations generated with lenders was that nearly all of them are actively seeking retail loan opportunities. Improved indicators, such as occupancy and overall rent, have resulted in more favorable underwriting in the sector. The improved conditions are a result of limited construction in certain markets coming online in the last five years. This has made the environment more palatable for life company lenders to re-enter the space, and also allow for strong execution with commercial banks, credit unions, and conduits.  Adaptive reuse has emerged as an in-demand space. Conversions to mixed-use, lifestyle, and fulfillment centers have resulted in maximization of a retail asset’s value and best use. This translates to more institutional equity providers willing to assist developers in capitalizing on these opportunities. The retail sector does have its headwinds, however, with two consecutive quarters of declining activity noted in the single-tenant net lease sector, as well as a similar pull-back in multi-tenant retail.  Multifamily remains in demand  For the past decade, one of the safest bets in commercial real estate has been multifamily, and that doesn’t seem to be changing any time soon. The best spreads for the multifamily asset class continues to be delivered by agency and “heavy-mission” orientated projects. The arena remains dominated by the agency lenders, but we have seen the popularization of long-term take-out financing by life company businesses. High housing demand doesn’t show any signs of subsiding, so this stalwart of the industry should remain king for the foreseeable future. For multifamily, lenders across the board have significant capital to deploy and are expected to compress spreads, thanks to aggressive underwriting, in an effort to generate more activity.  During the recent National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) event, Freddie Mac noted an increase in activity, thanks in part to the massive success of their 5-year fixed rate product with flexible prepay. This product also allows them to achieve higher interest-only levels versus when they had been previously constrained by the shorter loan term. The 5-year fixed rate product also offers a strong alternative to a bridge loan for a borrower.  At the same conference, pipeline building was the consensus from Fannie Mae, where volume has been slower year-to-date than in previous years. Borrowers can benefit from Fannie’s aggressive stance on longer term business (10+ years) and 5-year term options. The agency also communicated an appetite for credit facilities, a possibly unpassable consideration from the right type of borrower. Both Fannie and Freddie reported strong new deal inflows, with a tick-up of conversion expected after an anticipated drop in the 10-year treasury.  Other lending sources are available for specific situations and conditions. Life companies have been aggressive on spread reduction, banks are offering attractive terms for developers seeking construction loans, and equity remains available, especially preferred equity, when proceeds are falling short in a refinance. Additionally, bridge spreads have seen a significant drop in the early part of February, with some exceptions among banks.  Update from the Federal Reserve  We saw the Federal Reserve raise the Fed Funds policy rate by 25 basis points to between 4.50 percent and 4.75 percent during the February 1 meeting. While this was a smaller increase than the 50-point increase seen in December, it is now clear that ongoing increases would still be required to meet their mandate of price stability. The good news is that weakening demand exerted downward pressure on inflation in the previous quarter, making the possibility of this mandate being realized sooner rather than later a real possibility. But as the data changes, we can be sure that the story has not yet been written in terms of next steps.  While the question of “How long will rates continue to elevate and then level-off before rate cutting is initiated?” remains to-be-determined, it is clear the Fed actions will determine the course of the economy during the next one to two years. As a financier, setting a benchmark for rates has been the biggest hurdle due to increased cost of capital which has exasperated by limited clarity around monetary policy. Once uncertainty is eliminated, executions will increase.  As always, the best possible outcome can only truly be achieved by a full understanding of the entire capital stack, especially when pricing and discovery-related questions abound. We see the dilemma of “wait or act now” playing out in real time with borrowers, and the best way to navigate this quandary is to research all available lending options. The opportunities are there, but not as low hanging as they once were. 
March 6, 2023
Northmarq’s Tulsa Office Announces $4.855 Million Sale of Two Brand New Dollar Generals in Connecticut
Northmarq’s Tulsa Office Announces $4.855 Million Sale of Two Brand New Dollar Generals in Connecticut
Erik Lundberg, associate vice president in Northmarq’s Tulsa office, completed the sale of two brand new, New England style properties leased to Dollar General located at 580 Lake Road in Andover and 1967 Norwich-New London Turnpike in Montville, Connecticut. Lundberg represented the buyer, a private investor located in Farmington, who acquired the assets for a total of $4.855 million. The seller was a developer based in Torrington.   “Despite the challenges of today’s market, we were able to successfully complete two separate 1031 buy needs, placing our client into two new construction Dollar General build to suits, both in prime Connecticut locations,” said Lundberg.  The newly constructed buildings feature upgraded construction including architectural asphalt shingles, Hardie board siding, decorative lighting fixtures, and New England style windowed dormers. Strategically located just off US Highway 6, the Andover property is 15 miles east of downtown Hartford and seven miles from the University of Connecticut and Eastern Connecticut State University, attracting students and residents across the state. Situated in the village of Uncasville, the Montville Dollar General is a short distance from the Mohegan Sun Casino. Additionally, the property is conveniently located across the street from a Stop & Shop and Home Depot-anchored shopping center and neighbors a McDonald’s and CVS Pharmacy. The tenants operate on a long-term absolute triple net lease.  
March 2, 2023
Viewpoint Report
Net Lease Favorites Expanding Healthcare Services
As populations grow and America’s baby-boomer population ages, drugstore chains like CVS Pharmacy and Walgreens are, not surprisingly, investing significantly in the healthcare industry. But now, even general consumer retailers are beginning to expand their brick and mortar presence with new and bigger stakes in the primary healthcare market, which is opening the doors for net lease investors.  In recent months, several notable acquisitions have been announced. Signify Healthcare, a provider of home healthcare, will be acquired by CVS Pharmacy for close to $10.8 billion, according to February reports. Summit Health, the parent company of urgent care chain CityMD, is being acquired by Walgreens through an $8.9 billion deal. And in a bid to outpace rivals and increase its physical presence in primary care, CVS Health has agreed to pay approximately $10.6 billion to acquire Oak Street Health, the owner of over 170 senior-focused medical facilities.  Additionally, both retail juggernaut Walmart and e-commerce powerhouse Amazon are expanding into primary care. Amazon said last summer that it will pay almost $4.0 billion to acquire 1Lifecare Health, a primary care business that runs as One Medical, which is a turnkey network of 188 primary care clinics throughout the United States.  In an effort to compete with retail pharmacies and other merchants, Dollar General is now stepping up its offering of healthcare services too. At three of its stores in Tennessee, the business is testing the concept of mobile health clinics to offer consumers access to basic, preventative, and urgent care services, as well as lab testing. In order to offer these medical services – which are set up in sizable vans in shop parking lots – the discount retailer partnered with DocGo, a company that offers mobile health and transportation services. According to executives, the company intends to assess customer feedback and decide whether it would be feasible to offer the mobile health clinic service in more stores.  Walmart Health is preparing for its upcoming growth too. The retail behemoth recently announced that it will establish 16 more health facilities in Florida, concentrating on the Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa markets. According to the business, the locations should be operational by the fall of 2023.  After establishing a presence in Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, and Texas, Walmart Health entered the Florida market in early 2022. Thus far, these efforts have resulted in enhanced patient satisfaction and shortened wait times. The Florida health centers are reporting wait times that are almost half the national average. The clinics offer a variety of services, such as primary care, laboratories, X-rays, dental treatment, behavioral health care, hearing care, select specialist care, and community health services. They are situated near or adjacent to Walmart's retail stores.  There is growing interest from commercial real estate investors who have traditionally been narrowly focused on either retail or medical assets. As established, strong-credit retailers expand further into the rapidly growing healthcare sector, investors will see increased opportunities to acquire newly built, well located healthcare assets in desirable markets. 
February 27, 2023
Northmarq completes $24.1 million sale of Publix-anchored shopping center in St. Augustine, Florida
Northmarq Completes $24.1 Million Sale of Publix-Anchored Shopping Center in St. Augustine, Florida
Northmarq’s New York office has completed the sale of Parkway Village located at 170 Village Commons Drive in St. Augustine, Florida for $24.1 million. The 52,070-square-foot shopping center is anchored by Publix GreenWise Market, a specialty, natural, and organic grocery store. The seller was a developer based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Jason Maier, senior vice president at Northmarq, represented the 1031 exchange buyer, a New York-based private investor.   “I am very pleased to have represented and identified this asset on behalf of our client who was in a 1031 exchange. This particular asset stood amongst many other properties we reviewed, and the market in St. Augustine has experienced tremendous growth,” said Maier. “Playing off the success and high sales of the Publix-anchored center across the street, Publix wanted to expand its current operations and higher end food offerings, which its current location could not support. The rest of the supportive tenants gave way to a brilliant and vibrant mix of national credit tenants.”  The shopping center is newly built and is 100 percent occupied by 8 tenants, including Starbucks, Orange Theory Fitness, Supercuts, as well as local service providers and retails. Anchor-tenant GreenWise Market offers products that meet strict requirements such as USDA certified organic, made with at least 70 percent organic ingredients, and made without artificial preservatives, flavors, or color. The Parkway Village GreenWise Market is the twelfth location of the unique, health-conscious store.  Parkway Village is situated in a strong retail trade and residential area, with neighboring tenants such as a full-size Publix, CVS Pharmacy, AutoZone, and McDonalds and a short walk to Mill Creek Academy and Tocoi Creek High School. Located at the intersection of State Road 16 and International Golf Parkway, the property is convenient for residents of St. Johns County and neighbors the Shoppes at Murabella.  “When we looked around at the amount of new residential development, state of the art new schools, and this gorgeous new shopping center, my client and I both agreed this was a must addition to the portfolio,” added Maier. “We got really lucky with our lender, Principal Life, who provided a very competitive debt package in a touch lending environment.” 
February 27, 2023
Herrold-April23
Daniel Herrold Shares Insights With Wealth Management About Off-Market Deals Amid the CRE Industry’s Liquidity Crunch
Daniel Herrold, senior vice president of Northmarq’s Tulsa office, recently spoke with Wealth Management Magazine in a story focusing on how opportunities for investors looking for off-market acquisitions have opened up as sellers become more concerned about marketing a property that fails to sell. “Off-market deals have always been highly sought after because investors believe that opportunities that haven’t been widely distributed and/or marketed offer more attractive pricing,” he said. Herrold went on to note that that owners willing to sell their assets at a time when values are declining usually have a motivation to sell, such as personal financial need or an upcoming loan maturity, so they are looking for a qualified buyer who can offer speed of execution and transaction certainty. Other topics covered include: Federal Reserve’s impact on off-market deliveries Flexibility of 1031 exchange Remaining Challenges
February 17, 2023
Northmarq Arranges 1031 Exchange of Magnolia Health & Wellness Center
Northmarq Arranges 1031 Exchange of Magnolia Health & Wellness Center
Riley Sharman, vice president in Northmarq’s Houston office, has completed the sale of an eight-tenant medical and retail strip center located at 827 Magnolia Boulevard in Magnolia, Texas. The 16,700-square-foot building is fully leased to a diverse mix of strong medical and service-oriented tenants. Sharman represented the seller, a local owner. A 1031 exchange buyer based in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas acquired the asset.   “The dental partners that I represented were able to maximize value by exercising a ‘partial sale-leaseback’ for their practices, and we ultimately provided them the opportunity to capitalize on a sale to an all-cash, buyer exercising a 1031 tax deferred exchange,” said Sharman. “The interest and offer activity were high due to the long-term leases, strong lease guarantors, and extra acreage behind the strip center for future development, to name a few. This transaction demonstrates the increase in investor demand for multi-tenant medical strip centers we’re seeing throughout the Houston MSA and especially in high-growth areas like Magnolia."   The facility was built in 2012 and is situated on 7.66 acres in the city of Magnolia, an outdoor paradise of biking, hiking, golf, and more approximately 45 miles northwest of Houston. Just across the street from the property is a proposed Magnolia Ridge Development which will bring over 200 homes to one of the best public-school districts in Texas. With excellent visibility and multiple access points, Magnolia Health and Wellness Center boasts prime frontage on Magnolia Boulevard, seeing over 14,000 vehicles per day. Tenants include Hillwood Family Dental Group, Simple Traditions Family Health, Hanigan & Johnson Orthodontics, and Endodontics of Houston.  
February 9, 2023
Lanie Beck talks inflation with GlobeSt
Inflation Catches up to STNL
Originally published by GlobeSt It seems that inflation and a slowdown in the capital markets may have finally caught up with the single-tenant net lease sector, which has posted its fourth consecutive quarter of declining activity, according to an analysis from Northmarq.  In Q4, the single-tenant net lease market saw approximately $14.9 billion in sales, down nearly 16% quarter over quarter and down 66% year-over-year. The overall average cap rate also increased for the first time in three years. However, annually, the industrial market had its second strongest year ever with more than $40 billion in sales, while office and retail posted numbers in line with average volume years.  “The fourth quarter comparison is perhaps overly dramatic due to last year’s record-setting final quarter, but looking forward, it’s likely that we’ll continue to see lower levels of sales volume in the coming quarters rather than a return to near-record highs,” says Lanie Beck, Northmarq Senior Director, Content & Marketing Research. “There is currently enough uncertainty in the market that some investors may choose to observe from the sidelines, taking a more cautious approach. Alternatively, as pricing trends shake out, investors seeking higher yields may find new opportunities.”  Noting that it’s unlikely that investment activity in the sector will stop entirely, Beck also says “the market should be prepared to see conservative activity levels in at least the first half of 2023.”  “Past the mid-year point, demand will be influenced by economic conditions – especially if we enter a recession – interest rate levels, supply/demand dynamics, and the willingness of sellers to correctly price new-to-market assets,” she says. “An imbalance with any one of these influences could impact overall demand levels for 2023 and beyond.”  Multi-tenant retail has also seen a pullback, despite having previously been on pace in 2022 to hit a historic high. Fourth quarter activity slowed so much that the year ended as the fourth strongest ever as multi-tenant retail cap rates jumped by 10 basis points in Q4 and now sit at 6.78 percent.  “This is the highest average cap rate reported in a year, and while it’s likely the start of additional upward movement, cap rate increases are not expected to be dramatic in the next few quarters,” Beck says.  © 2022 ALM Global Properties, LLC. All rights reserved. 
February 8, 2023
Vikaas Patni joins Northmarq in Cincinnati, OH
Northmarq Hires Vikaas Patni To Join Commercial Investment Sales Team in Cincinnati
Northmarq’s Cincinnati office has announced the addition of Vikaas Patni as senior associate – commercial investment sales. Patni specializes in the disposition and acquisition of both single-tenant net lease properties and multi-tenant shopping centers throughout the United States. Prior to Northmarq, Patni served as vice president of Brokerage Services at Lee & Associates and achieved top producer status in 2021. Before Lee & Associates, Patni held leadership positions at Phillips Edison & Co. and Meridian Realty Capital. “I am very excited to be a part of Northmarq and Daniel Herrold’s team. With Northmarq and Stan Johnson Company combining forces, the new platform is now second to none, and I look forward to leveraging this and bringing value to my clients,” said Patni. “Given the exciting growth in CRE happening in and around Cincinnati and Ohio in general, Northmarq is perfectly positioned to bring these opportunities to its clients nationally.” Patni joins a team of investment sales professionals led by Daniel Herrold, senior vice president. With over 15 years of experience, Patni brings a client-focused approach, consulting and guiding his clients throughout the transaction’s entire lifecycle. “I’m really excited to have Vikaas join my team,” said Herrold. “Vikaas has an extensive background in retail, working both on the development side of the business and investment sales. He will be a key ingredient for our team as we focus on retail investors and developers across the Midwest.”
February 8, 2023

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